The next-gen warfare thread

[Game Guru]

Read this great post at N-philes.com, and couldn't help but post it here too. N-Philes isn't really as serious as N-sider and I thought this great post deserved more discussion than it's getting at N-philes . It pretty much sums up where the cards lie in the next-gen.

(I thought I posted this here long ago but I look back on my history & I forgot to put it down so let me share this with you all now)

I made the following 'editorial' of sorts last year (November 5, 2005) on an article from Joystiq.com after reading the back & forth on the comment board about people's predictions on the industry.
Though a Nintendo supporter to the end I wanted to lay out fairly & even-handedly exactly WHAT the reasons were for the success & failures of the companies in gaming as a whole using the knowledge I had of the passing generation & the upcoming generation.

I then shortly took this argument to the newsgroups for archival preservation. (web forums disappear but newsgroup archives are forever)
Since it dealt with all the companies I cross-posted it to the following newsgroups for full feedback & discussion:
rec.games.video.nintendo, alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube, rec.games.video.sony, alt.games.video.sony-playstation2, microsoft.public.xbox, alt.games.video.xbox

(Click the link to see original posting & follow-up discussion from other posters)
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.g...05ce1ecf6a257a

This essay was made at the time when the Wii was still called Revolution (boy how that name suddenly seems so old-fashioned now) & before the X-Box 360 was released.
AND despite my thoroughness in capturing the vibe of the scene I didn't factor in Sony's role in undoing itself only capturing the reality that Sony & Microsoft decide the fates of each other.
One small mistake but I think you'll like what I've said here.
(and maybe i could add more later in an update due to recent events)

Enjoy, fans.
~~~~~~~

Just need to add in my fifth of a dime right quick.
For all gameplayers:

The Future of the Next-Generation of Gaming.

Here's the skinny folks.



Sony Playstation 3

STRENGTHS
•The 'Sony' brandname.
high familiarity because of a diverse array of products from music players, CD's, TV's to batteries in everything from supermarkets to pharmacies to department stores.

•Last Generation's Marketshare Champion.
heads into next generation to continue where they left off with the PS2 & its massive volume of games.

•Media Center.
Sony continues trying to expand the experience of gaming adding in mediaplaying tools for music, movies, etc. & tries to get the jump on the tech trends by being the first with Blu-Ray technology. Not to mention HD capabilities.

•3rd Party Strength.
what made the PS1 champion & subsequently the PS2, Sony hopes for this crucial component to continue for the PS3. Those powerhouse franchises from Square, Capcom & the like as well as other various 3rd party offerings are what make Playstation what it is today.


WEAKNESSES
•What's New?
there's a ho-hum feeling in the gaming audience lately & this feeling will increase over the coming years. Each previous generation brought something drastically different to the table but the spark is starting to fizzle out.
A crash is on the horizon. If PS3 seems like nothing more than a mere update to the PS2, then that spells long term trouble for Sony & any hopes for a PS4.

•High Cost.
once you go much over $200 for a game system people get chafed. With high gas prices & a bumbling economy a high cost for entertainment may seem superfluous & some buyers may ignore the system. there are some who may say "I can go to a 'massage parlor' for $400!"-[to keep it clean]

•Gambling On A Tech Format Standard.
memories of the Betamax are still fresh & Sony's pull for Blu-Ray is in a 50/50 chance for gain or fail. If adopted as standard, Sony gets the headstart. If NOT adopted, Sony's stuck with a collector's item.

•King Of The Hill Syndrome.
once you're on top there's nowhere to go but down. You can either maintain your acme or tumble down the slopes to the anxious competition. Sony has to maintain their position and with X-Box 360 & Nintendo Revolution this may not be possible.



Microsoft X-Box 360

STRENGTHS
•Online Capability.
X-Box Live helped create a distinct identity apart from Playstation that has given X-Box as edge. This edge will grow in the next generation as X-Box focuses more on the service.

•First Out The Gate.
X-Box 360 gets to marinate in the minds of gamers over the holidays & in the first parts of 2006 giving it the 'golden one & only' status. This will help it increase its marketshare edge against Playstation.

•Name.
X-BOX. Simplistic short abrupt 'X-otic' name makes it memorable in the minds of new potential gamers who've never played a game system before.
Playstation was a strong name that denoted 'the place, the location where games are played' [a universal feel]. But it has too many syllables.
The letter "X" is a letter used for many things & in many sayings. The word "Box" has easy common familiarity {sandbox, boxing, mailbox, cardboard box}.
The "x" in "box" takes you back to the "X" at the beginning of the name. And like the letters "Q" & "Z", "X" has an exotic flavor in the English language due to its limited use. The brandname was meant to be highly memorable to stick in buyers' heads.

•Has Something To Prove.
Microsoft wants their gamesystem to take over Sony's market this generation. They seek to siphon away Sony's audience to theirs. To do this they seek to make themselves distinct from Sony so people will have a reason for buying their offering.
This results in the lauding of their power & system capabilities as well as aggresive marketing tactics. High ambition will serve them well as they continue their erosion of Sony's market dominance.


WEAKNESSES
•Identity.
X-Box STILL has problems when it comes creating a distinction between them & Sony when many games on their system are available on Playstation 2. If this trend continues X-Box 360 will end up looking like a 5th wheel in the long run. With the strength of the Halo franchise & Rare on their team as well as their strong online they have created some differences but it's not enough. X-Box will have to get more exclusivity in the gaming experience if it hopes to erode Sony.

•Bill Gates-A-Phobia.
some people refuse to trust Microsoft for fear of monopoly & all that comes with it. No matter WHAT Microsoft is offering good or bad there are some who refuse to pay tribute to the world's richest man. When you see takes like "Micro$oft" & "M$" there's a big wall of distrust that could hinder X-Box 360's plans.

•High Cost.
once again when you go over $200 for a gamesystem you're pushing it. Yeah some will pony up but others will find it hard to part with those hard earned dollars for a gamesystem regardless of what you purport it to be.
There are some who say "a woman better pop out of the gameslot for THAT price!"

•First Out The Gate.
yes this is also a weakness. Going first may lead you to being one-upped by the competition who took longer to display their goods. Short-term win, long-term loss. X-Box 360 better hope their technology stands the test of time or either that no one will care if it HAS been one-upped.

•What's New?
once again like Sony but to a lesser extent. Still X-Box 360 has to convince the gaming public what's REALLY so special about what you're offering me? Graphics are not the key to success this time around.
Photorealism is practically realized & the gamesystems of the future will eventually seem like nothing more than mere updates to the system they just had. Eventually that will wear a good portion of the gaming public down who may wander elsewhere with their entertainment dollars. If the NEXT-next gen X-Box 360-Spherical is to come about they have to address this problem soon.



Nintendo Revolution

STRENGTHS
•Heritage/History.
Nintendo will ALWAYS have its heritage to count on. The gaming masterpieces they put out over the decades have shaped the world of gaming time & time again. People have grown up with them & that is a substantial component of their success. Even for those who left the Nintendo house there's a soft spot in people's hearts for this company. This will pan out with gold in Nintendo's retro gaming smorgasbord.

•1st Party Power
unlike the other companies Nintendo is the only true one who can put out its OWN in-house games & make not only hits but classics with. And not just a few at that. That ability to create new franchises & superstars serves this company very well. The mascot power is not to be overlooked. Many a Happy Meal was sold due to an overgrown red-headed clown's face.

•Innovators/Standard Makers.
many of the standards we see in the current gaming experience originated with Nintendo. Their ability to keep it fresh is what makes them truly the driving force behind this industry whether or not they are the market champion. With the Revolution they stand to do it once again by flipping the script on how games are played with the new Revolution controller.
More than any other entertainment field gaming must stay innovative to survive.

•Underdog/Dark Horse.
the one-time dominator of the industry is now seen as an also-ran by many. Many skip mentioning them as a factor in the next-generation because they assume it's past last call for Nintendo. But they may have assumed wrong.
Unlike the other companies Nintendo even in its reduced space in the market still stays comfortably in the black. Being overlooked has its advantages. It allows you to formulate strategies to upset your competitors away from the glare of the spotlight. For a company to lose so much position on marketshare but continue to profit denotes some kind of "coiled-snakes-in-the-peanut-brittle jar type of surprise that may spring out unexpectedly shocking everyone.

•Low Cost.
Nintendo's ability to create high-quality tech at low prices will help them tremendously in this Bushconomy where people chafe at the gas tanks & weaker jobs. As a matter of fact these two things may work together as people opt to stay home more to avoid using the car which will result in people using their limited funds for cheap-priced gaming entertainment.

•FREE Online Capablities.
if Nintendo pulls off a quality online service & makes it FREE to use they have usurped X-Box 360's advantage. X-Box Live has a fee. They would have to have more exclusive games to make it worth the while. Nintendo has exclusive games but with the word FREE you can't be beat! And in the process X-Box 360's distinction erodes THIS time in the favor of Nintendo.



WEAKNESSES
•Volume/3rd Party Weakness.
this has been Nintendo's problem since the Nintendo 64. With the virtual exodus of the 3rd party of those times Nintendo has not quite recovered.
Although their 1st party titles are always knockouts, games take longer to produce than in decades past. This means you need 3rd party gamemakers to fill in the gaps between homemade releases so heavy-collecting gamers won't get bored.

•Image.
Nintendo's strategy of being the "family-based" system has its good points but has left Nintendo labeled "the kiddie system". Even though games are for children & the child-at-heart Nintendo has to at least alter aspects of this image. Not by changing their marketing demographics, no, but by broadening the array of games they have available to entice the buyers who discounted them to give them another chance.

•Luddites.
innovations have their drawbacks. There are some afraid of the unknown. Nintendo's remote-like controller may be too out there for some used to the way things are now. As a result some may flat out refuse to try out the innovation on sight-alone. If too much of the gaming public shares this mindset, the limb Nintendo went out on may snap.

•No Media Center.
although this is a big factor of why Nintendo's offering will be cheaper than the others, not having all those little extra bells & whistles will cause some used to what Playstation & X-Box have been putting forth to ignore Nintendo. It's not a major disadvantage but there are some who DO want all of those features & Nintendo simply won't have them. Time will tell if the public cares more about the meat & potatoes of gaming or about the dressing of ambience.


MY PREDICTIONS:
Nintendo (believe it or not) will eventually come out on top this
generation. They offer a totally new experience that will be sure to pull in not just PS gamers & X-Box gamers but people who have never fathomed TOUCHING a game.

They will pull in new buyers & create gamers on the spot.
They will pull in more FEMALES to the gaming world than anyone else will.
They will pull in different age groups & cement their standing & philosophy as the family-friendly/for-all-ages company.
They will finally secure the 3rd party support in the process (old AND new) which will leave the other 2 companies struggling as they have little to offer from themselves alone.

1st party is ALWAYS important to keep around because 3rd party shifts. They will continue to flex their franchise power as they do every generation. All of the strategies put together in this 10-year period as the underdog will finally pay off in increased marketshare.


What happens between Sony PS3 & MS X-Box 360 depends on X-Box. Sony will lose marketshare DEFINITELY this time around. They will be strong & they are not pushovers but they will lose some of that dominance this time. Their ultimate outcome depends on how much X-Box can siphon away their customers.
I see it happening already. I got a friend who bought PS1 & PS2 and he now says he wants an X-Box 360.


If X-Box 360 succeeds in vampiring Sony's base X-Box becomes the #2 in contest with Nintendo & Sony is left 3rd.
X-Box will pick up the audience who are not impressed with Nintendo's offering for whatever reason.


If X-Box 360 DOESN'T succeed in BramStoker's Dracula-ing then X-Box is on the verge of being out of the biz & Sony is in contest with Nintendo taking the people who don't like what Nintendo is selling.

X-Box has to make its mark or it's over. Sony's in a more comfortable position than X-Box & that's why X-Box has to work harder. Expect to see some hardcore console wars between X-Box & PS3 especially. X-Box will lead with the venom because they are the hungriest.


Nintendo's going nowhere until they feel like it.
They are not Sega.
They have the art AND the business sense.


Hope this puts it in perspective.
Thanks for reading.


John Lucas

My take (originally posted by me, Game Guru, at N-philes so I'm kind of responding to his post):

Great post. Mucho cookies for you. Pretty much summed up the whole thing. This should become "the official Next gen console war thread" or something.

I too predict that Nintendo will come out on top in this. Why? In business as with women, it's always the meek, who eventually get the girl. The pimps and players may get some for awhile, but it's always the quiet guys who win in the end. The same is true in business. Look at Apple. Nintendo will own this generation because they're expanding the market. They've already secured the majority of casual and hardcore gamers alike with their stunning showing at E3 (look no further than Wii60.com for evidence), but unlike the 360 (which will share space with Nintendo in the traditional gamer space), Nintendo's truly expanding the market. Nintendo will have gamers in it's corner, as well as non-gamers. The 360 will only have gamers.

Sony? They comitted suicide with that price. Even Famitsu polls show bad news is down the road for the system. I'm predicting Gamecube level sales for them. Perhaps worse (Sega Saturn level sales?), but hey, brand recognition does get you something.

So who do you think will come out on top next gen? Predictions get!

[Icculus]

Sony? They comitted suicide with that price. Even Famitsu polls show bad news is down the road for the system. I'm predicting Gamecube level sales for them. Perhaps worse (Sega Saturn level sales?), but hey, brand recognition does get you something.

I personally think that as long as they have Dragon Quest exclusively Sony will be just fine in Japan at least. It's America and Europe where it's iffy.

Sony's Japanese sales numbers will probably be about the same, but Nintendo could come out on top just by selling that much more to new areas.

[Game Guru]

I personally think that as long as they have Dragon Quest exclusively Sony will be just fine in Japan at least. It's America and Europe where it's iffy.

Sony's Japanese sales numbers will probably be about the same, but Nintendo could come out on top just by selling that much more to new areas.

It's true that Japanese gamers tend to go wherever Square goes I guess. But whether Square will jump ship is the question. If PS3 gets poor sales in America and Europe, the Final Fantasy games will take a massive cut in profit. The time, money and energy being put into FF13 must be astounding, the game looks like a feature movie. Square simply can't afford to sale 13 on a system that only sells in Japan. If fact, I don't see how they expect to proftit on a game that detailed at all really, but I guess they've got a plan.

[Original_Hamster]

How much changed the Sony's shareholding over Square scenario, now that we haven't Square, instead Square Enix?

[HiramAbiff]

I believe I read that sales of FF and DQ games in Japan have been waning.

[Bananaslug79]

I personally think that as long as they have Dragon Quest exclusively Sony will be just fine in Japan at least.

Didn't this already happen? I'm not really familiar with this game series, but I do know that Square is creating an exclusive title for the Wii. This may turn out to be an exclusive similar to the Final Fantasy game for the Cube (not a "true" sequel of the series), but I still think that breaks the pure exclusivity for Sony.

Also, the gentleman at N-Philes makes some interesting points regarding 1st and 3rd party titles (whether he meant to make these points or not):

1. Sony does not make their own games; they never have. They are a hardware company and not in the business of creating software. They manufacture strong hardware with brand loyalty and pay other talented companies to create the games for them. If someone can dispute this point, please do so. I am not aware of any in-house production team that makes Sony as strong as Nintendo strictly in regards to software creation. This will come back to bite them in the arse as Nintendo and Microsoft take away some of the fire those software companies have ignited for Sony.

2. Microsoft is first and foremost a software company. Why they put so much effort and money into a proprietary game system and not create more exclusive software titles of their own is beyond me. Maybe with their huge corporation they don't have the time, energy, or talent, but I find that hard to believe. This is an area they can increase development in and not rely on other companies to create their software the way Sony does. It is a way they can differentiate their system. Right now and in the immediate past it seems they have taken the same route as Sony using the "easy" method of sourcing out software development to other companies.

3. This one is obvious, but Nintendo does both 1 and 2 already. The main differences are that they started with software, created better and better hardware to run their exclusive titles, and now look to be getting back on track with other companies to produce great additional software titles. I am not trying to remain jaded on this, I know Nintendo has had problems with 3rd parties in the recent past. However, we have discussed to death their commitment to change and I do believe they will be able to reverse past mistakes in this regard. If they can't they'll be in the same position they've been in the last two generations and I don't think that third time around they will allow it to happen again.

That's all my brain can put out for right now. Gotta get back to work. This thread has great potential.

[Silicon Knights]

1. Sony does not make their own games; they never have. They are a hardware company and not in the business of creating software. They manufacture strong hardware with brand loyalty and pay other talented companies to create the games for them. If someone can dispute this point, please do so. I am not aware of any in-house production team that makes Sony as strong as Nintendo strictly in regards to software creation. This will come back to bite them in the arse as Nintendo and Microsoft take away some of the fire those software companies have ignited for Sony.

Sony has a huge development portfolio. Sony Santa Monica with the God of War series. Naughty Dogg with the Jak series. Fumito Ueda's team with the Ico series. Those are just a few off the top of my head.

[Bananaslug79]

Sony has a huge development portfolio. Sony Santa Monica with the God of War series. Naughty Dogg with the Jak series. Fumito Ueda's team with the Ico series. Those are just a few off the top of my head.

This must just be a perception thing then. I don't associate them with any kind of software development. I've heard of God of War and that it's pretty fun, but Jak always struck me as another poor platforming clone to try to capitalize on what Mario has done and I don't even know what the heck Ico is.

Thanks though, for bringing it up.

[Cardinal]

Sony has a huge development portfolio. Sony Santa Monica with the God of War series. Naughty Dogg with the Jak series. Fumito Ueda's team with the Ico series. Those are just a few off the top of my head.

Naughty Dogg is not owned by Sony in any way that I know. They may be a pseudo-second party.

[Ness the Mess]

This must just be a perception thing then. I don't associate them with any kind of software development. I've heard of God of War and that it's pretty fun, but Jak always struck me as another poor platforming clone to try to capitalize on what Mario has done and I don't even know what the heck Ico is.

Thanks though, for bringing it up.

Oh your poor child. Pick up Ico or Shadow of the Colossus - or, if you don't own a PS2, find friend that does, and insist they purchase one of them. They are Nintendo qualtiy games, except for their 15 hour playlengths.

And, am I the only one that's tired of the "console wars"? I mean, for some of us, the console wars have gone on for over a decade. Thats longer than World War II. They've spanned longer than the Gulf war AND the Gulf War II (so far) including the time in between. I, for one, have War Weariness.

I don't care who "wins." You know who wins? The consumer, because there is alot of effort this generation, just like every past generation, to create someting enjoyable. Everyone can find their niche - thats the great thing about having three console manufacturers - four if the Phantom ever surfaces (JOKING!!). To deny that the Xbox 360 and PS3 have some merit is just silly. I, for one, will likely stick with the Wii (started to type Revolution there for a sec), but that doesn't mean I hate the other systems - even though I would say I'm a Nintendo fan(atic).

[HiramAbiff]

Sony's second parties are better than their own developers. Of all of those, I believe Sucker Punch is the only one in Nintendo's league, albeit they aren't as prolific.

[Jonathan]

Sony's second parties are better than their own developers. Of all of those, I believe Sucker Punch is the only one in Nintendo's league, albeit they aren't as prolific.

Ratchet is better than Sly.

Don't get me wrong, I like Sly a lot, but Ratchet is far more fun. (Until Deadlocked, that is, when they essentially dropped all of the platforming elements.)

Of course, that's pretty much all I really know about from either developer (from this gen, anyway). I think Insomniac did the Spyro games? Didn't much like them. Sucker Punch, though, I don't know of anything other than Sly.

Ratchet and Sly, incidentally, are two of my favorite platformer series ever. Mario's still at the top, but... yeah!

[HiramAbiff]

You have got to be kidding me. Ratchet and Clank, while a fun game with fun level design and weapons, is still a typical platformer, whereas Sly Cooper adds more environmental puzzles and controls better.

[Jonathan]

You have got to be kidding me. Ratchet and Clank, while a fun game with fun level design and weapons, is still a typical platformer, whereas Sly Cooper adds more environmental puzzles and controls better.

I have much more trouble controlling Sly than I do Ratchet. And more environmental puzzles does not make a better game. I, myself, prefer Ratchet's excellent level design to Sly's excellent environmental puzzles!

Actually, Ratchet has some of the tightest controls in any game I've played for a long time. I have absolutely zero problems with the controls. Not that I have any real problems with Sly, either, but Ratchet feels so much smoother.

But! If Ratchet keeps going in the direction of Deadlocked (ugh), I'll just have to give up on the series. /:

Jak, on the other hand, is redundantly boring.

[HiramAbiff]

Jak is crap. But Mario controls better than all of them. You can tell he gets play-tested more.

[Mariner]

Sony's Japanese sales numbers will probably be about the same, but Nintendo could come out on top just by selling that much more to new areas.

I disagree on both accounts. First of all, I'd say there's at least a 90% chance that the PS3 will perform significantly less than the PS2 in Japan. All you need to do is look at console sales (DS has screwed everything up recently) in Japan to see that the market has been in a downward spiral for about 8 years now, with no sign of pulling up. Pick a franchise. Check out the sales of their games in the last 8 years. In general, each successive release has been selling less and less. For every franchise. Every single one. Dynasty Warriors, Winning Eleven, Power Pro Baseball, Metal Gear, Tales of, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, whatever. And it's not like anything new has stepped up to the plate. The last time a new franchise hit a million was in 2000 with Onimusha (again, ignoring the DS). And what's Sony banking on with the PS3? Bigger, more powerful, and... more of the same. Needless to say, that's not going to work. Personally, I don't expect the PS3 to get any higher than 15 million units.

And even then, that's still almost 4 times as much as the GameCube sold. How easy is it to just gain back all that marketshare in one fell swoop? Sure, people point to the DS' success, but not all of that success will translate back into the console. Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that 1/5 of all DS users (by the end of its lifetime) end up becoming convinced to buy a Wii (all things considered, that seems rather optimistic to me). We'll just call that 6 million. Let's say half of the people dropping the PS3 buy a Wii (2 mil). Let's say it also entices back a couple million retro gamers with the Virtual console. And that all the previous GC owners will buy one. That brings the total up to... 14 million. Still much less than the PS2, and probably on par with what the PS3 will do. Sure, these numbers are all pulled out of a hat. But it just illustrates how hard it will be for Nintendo to be #1. Possible? Yes. A sure thing? Not in the slightest.

It's even harder in the West, thanks to more disposable income in the US (PS3 price point not being as much of an issue) and the existence of the XBox 360. Personally, I think anything above 35 million lifetime userbase is cause for a celebration for the Wii. It'd represent a major turnaround, and would establish them as a very strong presence. However, at this point, it's impossible to predict what will happen.